Can we predict multi-party elections with Google Trends data? Evidence across elections, data windows, and model classes

Journal of Big Data

Table 3 Comparing model predictions to polls

Model class	Election	Better predictions: %	Better predictions: n out of total
MC1: GT	2009	0	0 out of 150
	2013	66	99 out of 150
	2017	97	145 out of 150
	2021	0	0 out of 150
MC2: GT + election weight	2009	0	0 out of 150
	2013	0	0 out of 150
	2017	32	48 out of 150
	2021	0	0 out of 150
MC3: GT + weekly polls weight	2009	20	30 out of 150
	2013	29	43 out of 150
	2017	73	109 out of 150
	2021	20	30 out of 150