Journal of Big Data

Table 5 Estimated Logarithmic forecasting models for USA and selected states

From: Forecasting AIDS prevalence in the United States using online search traffic data

	AIDS	AIDS (search term)			AIDS (illness)
	AIDS	α	β	R ²	α	β	R ²
USA	Prevalence	− 100,000	881,002	0.9695	− 100,000	830,816	0.9844
	Diagnoses	16,068	− 20,481	0.8548	14,525	− 15,399	0.8982
	Deaths	5859	− 2738	0.9452	5186	− 553.58	0.9524
California	Prevalence	− 11,677	99,283	0.9684	− 10,780	96,113	0.9239
	Diagnoses	1670.7	− 1852	0.7151	1733.9	− 1962.9	0.8622
	Deaths	559.95	− 168.21	0.942	481.76	87.41	0.7806
Florida	Prevalence	− 17,848	105,055	0.955	− 14,942	97,677	0.9571
	Diagnoses	2822.4	− 5025	0.8862	2396.1	− 3962	0.9133
	Deaths	970.62	− 961.25	0.8457	828.81	− 610.55	0.8816
Illinois	Prevalence	− 4563	29,922	0.9783	− 4151	29,124	0.9865
	Diagnoses	587.39	− 713.99	0.8688	530.2	− 598.58	0.8625
	Deaths	207.83	− 107.81	0.8635	187.74	− 67.41	0.8586
Maryland	Prevalence	− 4325	28,920	0.9663	− 3755	26,973	0.9788
	Diagnoses	764.14	− 1357.2	0.9226	658.98	− 999.93	0.9223
	Deaths	323.92	− 410.32	0.8647	281.24	− 264.71	0.8762
Massachusetts	Prevalence	− 2369	17,052	0.9828	− 2102	16,120	0.9848
	Diagnoses	363.09	− 566.12	0.9204	319.15	− 414.72	0.9053
	Deaths	92.75	− 19.36	0.8951	81.7	18.84	0.8841
New Jersey	Prevalence	− 2052	24,339	0.9535	− 1771	23,254	0.9361
	Diagnoses	633.68	− 928.47	0.8535	555.61	− 618.92	0.8651
	Deaths	377.47	− 468.44	0.9657	328.49	− 276.84	0.9642
New York	Prevalence	− 8477	97,596	0.9246	− 7652	94,878	0.9283
	Diagnoses	3085.9	− 6020.5	0.9607	2794.8	− 5058.3	0.9709
	Deaths	978.44	− 877.45	0.9683	885.23	− 569.63	0.9765

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