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Table 5 The definition of three AI forecasting models based on the loyalty classes and network theoretical tools of homophily according opinion modeling

From: Why polls fail to predict elections

MODEL 1

Supporters (classes of users)

FF

Ultra loyal MP, loyal MP\(\rightarrow\)MP, loyal MP\(\rightarrow\)FF and loyal MP\(\rightarrow\)Undecided

MP

Ultra loyal FF, loyal FF\(\rightarrow\)FF, loyal FF\(\rightarrow\)MP and loyal FF\(\rightarrow\) Undecided

Third party

Undecided\(\rightarrow\)MP, Undecided\(\rightarrow\)FF, Undecided\(\rightarrow\)Undecided, Unclassified

MODEL 2

Supporters (classes of users)

FF

Ultra loyal FF, loyal FF\(\rightarrow\)FF, loyal FF\(\rightarrow\)MP, loyal FF\(\rightarrow\)Undecided and FF(undecided)

MP

Ultra loyal FF, loyal FF\(\rightarrow\)FF, loyal FF\(\rightarrow\)MP, loyal FF \(\rightarrow\) Undecided and MP(undecided)

Third party

Undecided(undecided), Unclassified

MODEL 3

Re-weighting the MODEL 2 from the Twitter populations to the Census data