Design matters in patient-level prediction: evaluation of a cohort vs. case-control design when developing predictive models in observational healthcare datasets

Journal of Big Data

Table 3 The AUC performance of both models predicting dementia when applied to each subset of patients within each 5-year age group

Dementia temporal Validation AUC performance
Age group	Cohort design	Case-control design
ALL	0.897	0.560
Age group: 18–19	0.652	0.511
Age group: 20–24	0.668	0.547
Age group: 25–29	0.683	0.520
Age group: 30–34	0.684	0.595
Age group: 35–39	0.673	0.572
Age group: 40–44	0.699	0.604
Age group: 45–49	0.699	0.601
Age group: 50–54	0.712	0.629
Age group: 55–59	0.726	0.653
Age group: 60–64	0.720	0.671
Age group: 65–69	0.689	0.661
Age group: 70–74	0.666	0.642
Age group: 75–79	0.650	0.634
Age group: 80–84	0.631	0.629
Age group: 85–89	0.613	0.616