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Table 7 Comparison of prediction power of extrapolation vs. D/S model

From: Airline new customer tier level forecasting for real-time resource allocation of a miles program

Question asked D months after 1st flight: will they become Silver within S months?
Case D S Extrapolation of miles Rx1 D/S Model Rx2P3A4
0 0.5 3 0.39 0.60 81% 31%
1 1 1 0.39 0.71 87% 53%
2 1 2 0.39 0.70 89% 48%
3 3 1 0.50 0.89 97% 82%5
4 3 3 0.39 0.67 95% 46%
5 6 3 0.51 0.83 96% 69%
  1. Notes. 1To compare predictive power between two models we use correlation as a proxy. Rx = correlation of accumulated miles with binary variable silver_attain. 2correlation of the Model’s prediction with binary variable silver_attain. 3P = Precision, of all users who were predicted to become Silver, How many of them did indeed become silver? 4A = Accuracy: Of all users who will become silver how many did we not miss? 5: See Table 8 for details on case 3.